Thursday, March 25, 2010

Ireland is in a Depression

The release of the fourth quarter 2009 Quarterly National Accounts reveal that Ireland is in a depression.  The commonly cited definitions of a depression are:
  1. A recession which lasts for more than two years (eight quarters)
  2. A decline in GDP of more than 10%
GDP in Ireland has declined for each of the last eight quarters and ten of the last 11.
GDP in Q4 2009 was 12.3% lower than the equivalent GDP figure in Q4 2007. (€47.885 billion versus €41.913 billion).  If we were to look at GNP figures the outcome is even bleaker – a drop of 16.7%.
Here we can see when we entered recession and when we entered depression. Click to enlarge.
The trend in both GDP and GNP is still down.  If a depression is worse than a recession, what’s worse than a depression?

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