Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Retail Sales going nowhere

The release by the CSO of the provisional July figures for the Retail Sales Index continue to show a sector that is moribund.  Here is the retail sales index excluding the motor trades (which have a 21.6% weighting in the overall index for July).

Ex Motor Trades Index to July 2012

Monthly increases in the indices are not unusual; what is unusual a sequence of positive monthly increases.  During 2008 and 2009 the series fell precipitously.  This fall moderated during 2010 and the pattern since has been monthly fluctuations around a slightly falling trend-line.  The annual changes reflect this pattern.

Annual Change Ex Motor Trade Index to July 2012

Finally, here are the monthly changes in the series which highlight the inconsistency of the monthly changes.

Monthly Change Ex Motor Trade Index to July 2012

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