The release by the CSO of the provisional July figures for the Retail Sales Index continue to show a sector that is moribund. Here is the retail sales index excluding the motor trades (which have a 21.6% weighting in the overall index for July).
Monthly increases in the indices are not unusual; what is unusual a sequence of positive monthly increases. During 2008 and 2009 the series fell precipitously. This fall moderated during 2010 and the pattern since has been monthly fluctuations around a slightly falling trend-line. The annual changes reflect this pattern.
Finally, here are the monthly changes in the series which highlight the inconsistency of the monthly changes.Tweet