Thursday, August 25, 2011

Yields near 9%

Although it is an artificially created measure and the actual values it takes have no psychological meaning the 10-year Irish government yield calculated by Bloomberg is hovering just above 9%.  As I write this it is 9.057%.

Bond Yields 1D 25-08-11

This is still well above the level the would allow new Irish government bonds to be issued to the market.  We have access to EU/IMF funds at around 4.5% so the yield is still twice that.

However, the yield is close to the coupon we are paying on some of our debt.  There is a €9.1 billion tranche of Promissory Notes to Anglo and INBS that has an annual coupon of 8.6% as outlined here.

While the drop in the 10-year yield from over 14% a month ago to 9% now has been quick, the drop in the two-year yield has been almost alarming.

Bond Yields 6M to 25-08-2011

On the 18th July the 2-year yield was over 23%.  This morning it it is 8.7%.  The Irish government bond with a 4.0% coupon that is due to mature on the 14th January 2014 could be bought for around €68 for each €100 unit when the yields reached their peak. 

In just a little over five weeks the price of this bond has risen to near €90.  There probably isn’t too many who were able to buy when the yields spiked towards the end of July, but those that did are sitting on a very tidy profit.

The Irish 2-year yields is 8.7%. What is Greece’s?

2 comments:

  1. There was an article about this very subject in the Times today. A leading fund manager thinks that of the countries subject to the EU/IMF programme Ireland is the best-placed to grow itself out of trouble and to pay back the loans owed to the EU and IMF. Falls in our bond-yields in both the short and medium-term suggest that the market agrees with him. Looking at the vertiginous drop in two-year yields could give us the option to borrow short-term financing from the markets in the New Year.

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  2. Lorcan Roche Kelly seemed to think that the interest rate on the Promissory note doesn't matter because we will get it all back anyway because we own Anglo. Which I found bizzare, I though we would never again see that money again?

    http://blog.cornerturned.com/2011/03/14/big-picture/

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