Tuesday, October 29, 2013

Retail sales get stuck

The CSO have published the September update of the Retail Sales Index.  Excluding the motor trades, the volume index was unchanged in the month with the value index showing a slight decline.  The increases seen during the sunny summer have not been sustained into the autumn.

Ex Motor Trades Index to Sep 2013

In annual terms, the 2013 figures are now coming up against the short-lived increase that occurred from June to October 2012 (in part driven by the digital switchover for television signals).  This has brought the annual change back towards zero and negative annual changes are likely for the next few months.

Annual Change Ex Motor Trade Index to Sep 2013

A continued drop in the value series will have consequences for VAT receipts.  Finally here are the monthly changes in both series.

Monthly Change Ex Motor Trade Index to Sep 2013

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