Wednesday, July 3, 2024

CT receipts go gangbusters - again

Can we really keep saying that? We might have expected an increase in June but the outturn was exceptionally strong.  For a single month, the €5.9 billion collected in June is second only to the €6.3 billion collected last November.  

As shown below, June 2024 was by far the largest June on record.

Of course, as we discussed earlier, the June receipts are also a pointer to what might happen in November.  Here’s what happens if we extend the June/November relationship for the outturn we have just seen for June 2024: a fitted value for November 2024 of €8.2 billion – which alone would be equivalent to the entire amount of CT collected in 2017.

The strong June means that 2024 is now considerably higher than 2023.  In the first six months of 2024 €12.2 billion of CT has been collected.  On its own this would be the fourth-highest full year ever – and there are still six months to go.

It is pretty likely now that the sequence of calendar year CT receipts exceeding the previous year will be extended to 13 years (back to 2012).

The June outturn was enough to push the rolling 12-month sum up to a new high of €25.5 billion.

The next month of interest will be August when we will see how much the fruit harvest brings in.

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