Wednesday, October 4, 2023

Corporation Tax motors along

Corporation Tax receipts continue to pour in for the Exchequer. 2023 seems set to extend the decade long run of each year exceeding the previous year – though the gap to last year has narrowed.

Exchequer Corporation Tax Cumulative by Year 2014-2023

In July, CT receipts for 2023 were running about €1.5 billion ahead of those for 2022.  August and September weren’t as strong as last year reducing the gap to €600 million. 

August seems to have been affected by some firm-specific idiosyncrasies that will wash out, while there is little to be taken from the September figure.  September is month T+9 for firms with a December year-end and is when they file their tax return and make their final tax payment for the previous year.

Corporation Tax September Receips 2009-2023

On a 12-month basis, CT receipts seem to have plateaued around €24 billion which is an extraordinary amount.

Exchequer Corporation Tax 12-Month Rolling 2012-2023

Which means that the growth of the 12-month sum has also eased considerably.

Exchequer Corporation Tax 12-Month Rolling Annual Change

Optimism for the remainder of 2023 is mainly due to the strength seen in June. Companies with December year ends pay the bulk of the CT in June and November (corresponding to month 6 and month 11 of their financial year).

The €4.2 billion collected in June of this year points to November receipts of around €6 billion, which would be €1 billion more than the same month last year.

Corporation Tax June and November Predicted 2009-2022

And with the rate for large companies set to rise to 15 per cent and the exhaustion of capital allowances for onshored intangible assets the risks to forecasts would seem to be on the upside.

No comments:

Post a Comment