Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Recovery in employment continues

The Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) has assumed a greater role in providing information about the performance of the economy in recent years.  This is not because of any improvements in the QNHS (indeed the results of Census 2011 show that caution to some of the QNHS estimates must be exercised) but because of difficulties in untangling all the caveats associated with Ireland’s national accounts data.

Employment Total

After slowing down through most of 2014 it now appears that employment growth re-accelerated in the first half of 2015.

Employment Growth

If we do a simple arithmetic projection of employment excluding the construction sector then the pre-crisis peak of employment (excluding construction) would be regained by the middle of next year.

Employment ex Construction

Almost all of the recent employment growth is in full-time rather than part-time employment.

Full Time and Part Time Employment

Though amongst part-time employees it should be noted that the drop in those who consider themselves to be “underemployed” has not continued into 2015.

Part-time underemployed

This is also reflected in the broad unemployment rate which includes potential labour supply (those marginally attached to the labour force and those who are willing to work more).  Note both unemployment rates here are not seasonally adjusted.

Unemployment Rates

Recent employment growth has mainly been in employees rather than in the self-employed.

Employee and Self Employed

And among employees there has been a drop in public sector employee numbers and a rise in private sector employees. Again these series are not seasonally adjusted.

Pub and Priv Employee Numbers

It can be seen that employee numbers in the private sector have been growing since early 2011.  Overall employment did not grow in 2011 as there were falls in self and public sector employment but private sector employee numbers have been growing for four years.

The regional data show that the employment growth is not Dublin-centric.  Over the past 12 months there was a 41,900 increase in employment outside Dublin compared to 15,400 in Dublin.  In growth terms Dublin had only the sixth fastest increase in annual employment of the eight regions.

Regional Employment

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