Thursday, October 30, 2014

Retail sales hit reverse

Yesterday’s release by the CSO of the September Retail Sales Index shows that the increases recorded over the past year or so have stalled, and in value terms have almost fully being reversed.  As per usual we focus on the RSI excluding the motor trades.  In the past two months the value of retail sales has fallen 1.4 per cent with volumes falling 0.6 per cent.

RSI Sep 14

These are reflected in the annual changes which are still positive but the value index is now showing annual growth of just one per cent.

RSI Sep 14 Annual

The monthly changes highlight the volatility in the series so reading anything from changes over a two-month period is not very reliable.  It is also possible that the September figures will be revised in later RSI releases.

RSI Sep 14 Monthly

For the moment at any rate we can say that the figures are not reflective of “recovery”.  What will the final quarter of the year bring?

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