Thursday, February 28, 2013

Retail Sales slip again

With December’s retail sales failing to live to the the Xmas hype, today’s release of the January 2013 Retail Sales Index does little to alter the landscape.  Retail sales excluding the motor trade fell on a seasonally adjusted basis in January.  The fall was greatest in the volume series which has given up more than half of the increase that occurred in the six months after June 2012.

Ex Motor Trades Index to November 2012

On an annual basis both the volume and value indices are above where they were at the same time last year (but only just).

Annual Change Ex Motor Trade Index to November 2012

The monthly volatility in the series is evident  but after a sequence of four monthly increases both the volume and value series have recorded monthly declines in two of the past three months.

Monthly Change Ex Motor Trade Index to November 2012

Turning the corner? Caveat emptor.  We’ve been offered that pup before.

1 comment:

  1. I posted ideas in these points on the last retails sales blogpost, but just in case anyone missed them:

    Could it be that the lack/incompleteness of online sales data in the RSI composition explains some of the sluggish RSI results?

    In any case, year-on-year value and volume changes (excluding motor trades) have been positive for every month since August despite another tough budget. Added to better QNHS numbers yesterday and the expected improvement to consumer sentiment from the promissory note deal in recent weeks, and I'd contend that talk of turning corners doesn't seem totally premature.