Friday, January 4, 2013

Intrade moves

There is no reason to put much weight on them but here are one-year charts from two markets on  The markets are whether any current eurozone country will announce their intention to drop the euro before either:


As recently as the start of November the 2013 market was showing a near 50% estimated probability of an exit while the 2014 market was above 60% at the time.  Since then both have dropped by around 30 percentage points.  The green bars which indicate the volume show that activity was greatest in the period since November (though the number of ‘shares’ traded is relatively small).

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