Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Q3 National Accounts

The CSO have published the Quarterly National Accounts and Balance of Payments for Q3 2012.  It is estimated that real GDP rose 0.2% in the quarter while real GNP fell –0.4% in the quarter.

The first estimates of the Q2 2012 changes provided in September have both been revised up, from 0.0% to 0.4% for GDP and from 4.3% to 4.7% for GNP.

Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.5% in the quarter, Investment rose 8.5% with a 0.3% quarterly fall in the measure of Government Expenditure included in the accounts.  For the first time in seven quarters Consumption shows an annual rise.  The measure of Final Domestic Demand rose by 1.9% in real terms in the quarter and shows an annual increase of 0.3%.  This is the first annual rise in 18 quarters for Final Domestic Demand (back to Q1 2008).

In 2010 prices, GDP in the first three quarters of 2011 was €119.3 billion.  For the first three quarters of 2012 the equivalent figure is €120.2 billion.  This represents an annual growth rate of 0.8%.  The equivalent figure for GNP is 3.0%.

For Maastricht criteria buffs, nominal GDP in the first three quarters of 2012 is estimated to be €123.3 billion, compared to €119.1 billion in 2011, for a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.5%.

Quarterly GDP rose less than Final Domestic Demand because of a fall in the in the balance of trade.  In real terms, seasonally adjusted exports rose 0.3% in the quarter but imports rose by more with an increase of 2.1%.

In the Balance of Payments the estimated surplus for the first three quarters of the year is 4.3% of GDP up from 0.0% last year.

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