Monday, April 26, 2010

The shine is wearing off

In a piece from Bloomberg, Ken Rogoff says that there is a 50/50 chance that Greece will not be the only bailout required in the eurozone.

Greece is unlikely to be the last euro nation to need an International Monetary Fund bailout, with Ireland, Spain and Portugal “conspicuously vulnerable,” said Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff.

“It’s more likely than not that we’ll need an IMF program in at least one more country in the euro area over the next two to three years,” Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist who has co-authored studies of financial and sovereign debt crises, said in a telephone interview. “The budget cuts needed in Europe in many countries are profound.”

At 14.3 percent of gross domestic product, Ireland had the euro region’s largest deficit last year. Greece’s was 13.6 percent, Spain’s was 11.2 percent and Portugal’s 9.4 percent.

The likelihood is “better than 50-50” that others in the 16-nation euro area will end up requiring help from the Washington-based lender, said Rogoff, 56. He expects the IMF will eventually dispatch more loans to Greece than the as-much- as 15 billion euro it’s currently offering.

See how yields on 2-year Irish government bonds have been faring here.  Check out screen captures of the Daily and Monthly graphs.  Just today 2-year Greek bond yields have shot up to 13% and can be followed here with daily and monthly screen captures. 

The FT have a quote that “this is the highest yield on short-dated government debt in the world”.  Higher yields mean the perceived risks are increasing.  More doubts here and less concern here.

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