What to do with €30 billion of savings?

To paraphrase a former Taoiseach, as a community we are living away within our means. This can be represented using the recently published Q4 2022 update of the Institutional Sector Accounts.  Here we show gross savings minus gross capital formation [S-I] for the government and household sectors – this is equivalent to a sector’s contribution to the current account of the balance of payments. Here they are on a four-quarter sum basis:

There was an expectation that household savings would decline as the pandemic eased but savings remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels.  For the government sector there has been an improvement due to the reduction of Covid-related income and business supports and the government’s position has been further boosted by soaring Corporation Tax receipts.

Although, the quarterly figures are only preliminary, summing over the four quarters of 2022 shows the household sector to have had a surplus of savings over investment of €20.5 billion with the government showing a surplus of €9.5 billion on the same measure.  Combined they sum to €30 billion.

The evolution of the line in the above chart, as well as the composition between household and government sectors is as good a starting point as any to discuss the performance of the economy since the year 2000.  But reaching an unprecedented position of +€30 billion is as worthy of examination as the developments that led to the deterioration to –€20 billion during the credit bubble.

Ireland’s Savings in Comparative Terms

But where do we stand relative to other countries? Here is a set of EU countries selected as those which have the necessary data available from Eurostat. The data are scaled by Net National Income which mitigates, but doesn’t completely eliminate, the need to adjust the figures for Ireland. Apart from the calculations done to get the [S-I] figures, no adjustment is made to the Eurostat data.

We see that Ireland is also high in comparative terms with other countries, though for the household sector there is a relatively small difference to Germany, Czechia, Sweden, The Netherlands and France.  With most EU countries running government deficits it is Ireland’s government surplus that leads to most of the gap. Still, for the household sector one can query whether we are at a sufficiently mature stage to be savings on a par with households in Sweden, The Netherlands and Germany.

The post is titled “what to do with €30 billion of savings” but we do know what has been done with it.  Households have put most of their surplus on deposit and the government has started contributing to a National Surplus Reserve Fund. 

The increase in household sector deposits has been noted for sometime.  Irish households have been deleveraging for around 15 years now. Post-2008 this was mainly via a reduction in debts. This has now switched to being an increase in deposits.

In the financial accounts of the Central Bank of Ireland, the household sector had just over €150 billion of currency and deposit assets at the end of 2019.  By the end of 2021 this had increased to €185 billion with a further rise to €195 billion by the third quarter of 2022.

This increase in household sector deposits in Ireland has been one of the fastest in the EU14.

However, the level does not stand out, whether using a ratio of deposits to income or using a balance sheet measures such as a ratio of deposits to loans.

While there certainly is some interest in what households do with the near €200 billion of currency and deposits assets they now have (and knowing more about the distribution of those would be a useful step in that regard), a more pertinent issue is probably what happens to savings behaviour going forward. Will household saving continue at an elevated level? Should the government be running a budget surplus?

Macroeconomic Constraints: Real and Financial

The economy faces constraints but these are more real (resources) than financial (income).  The unemployment rate is below five percent while pressures in housing are well documented. But the domestic economy is running a very large balance of payments surplus – perhaps only second to Norway in European terms. Norway is benefitting from higher energy prices; Ireland from booming Corporation Tax revenues.

But in Ireland, it seems it is the household sector that is saving the largesse not the government sector.  Norway (population 5 million) added €100 billion to its sovereign wealth fund last year.

In response to the surge in inflation, the government introduced a large set of compensatory measures.  Some of these were targeted where they were needed but many were universal and seem only to have added to the burgeoning deposits of certain households.

If these measures are not repeated in 2023 then we may see some reduction in household savings. If not offset by spending elsewhere, this would see the government surplus rise (also aided by first quarter Corporation Tax receipts which have been particularly strong).

But what level of budget surplus is politically sustainable?  Should the government be increasing taxes aimed at households with elevated savings rates to recapture the benefits of the soaring Corporation Tax receipts or to ensure that those savings aren’t released into an economy already operating at close to capacity?  The need for increased housing supply is undeniable but should activity in other sectors be squeezed to try and create room for more construction activity? No solutions are offered here as we are merely pointing to the trade-offs faced.

The unusual position of the economy can be illustrated with a chart of the unemployment rate (representing an internal resource imbalance) and the current account of the balance of payments (representing an external income imbalance).  The two macroeconomic loops the Irish economy has experienced in the last 50 years are also highlighted (1975 to 1998 and 2003 to 2019).

The imbalances experienced by the Irish economy have typically been in the top left quadrant: high unemployment and a large balance of payments deficit.  The economy is now in the opposite position: low unemployment and a large balance of payments surplus. 

The economy certainly has the income capacity to increases spending but it does not seem as if there is the resource capacity to do so.  Higher spending may push up domestic inflationary pressures which heretofore has largely been driven by external factors. 

There is also the sustainability of the income.  In the textbook descriptions, taxation is viewed as a withdrawal from the circular flow of income that would not be considered, at least directly, to lead to an increase in national income. 

Ireland’s Corporation Tax revenues do not fit with the textbook analysis.  Four-fifths is paid by foreign-owned companies and the bulk of that arises from (U.S.) companies that have a presence in Ireland to service international markets.  Corporation Tax is an injection to national income and that injection is reaching ever higher levels.  In the 12 months to the end of March, Corporation Tax receipts reached €24 billion.

Conclusion

Ireland is in a position of wanting to do things (such as build houses) and having the income to finance this activity but not the resource capacity to undertake it. With the unemployment rate close to four percent an increase in spending would likely lead to a rise in inflation.

We could view building houses as something we want to do all the time – which we should – and not just when Corporation Tax receipts are booming. To that end we could increase taxes to provide a sustainable revenue source to fund public capital spending on housing.  This could also create the resource space in the economy to accommodate that activity.

However, that is an economic argument not a political one.  Tax increases while the government is running surpluses are unlikely to get much traction.  But political myopia to the trade-offs we face does not mean that they do not exist. We should have something to show for the ongoing boost to national income: but that something should not be a surge in domestic inflation.

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