Nominal GDP and the Maastricht Criteria

Today’s National Accounts release from the CSO has generated a lot of reaction.  One peripheral issue is the impact of the figures on the government debt and deficit outcomes.  Back in April, Eurostat published the initial notification of these figures.  The reported 2011 figures for Ireland were:

• General government deficit: 13.1% of GDP
• General government debt 108.1% of GDP

On the same day the Department of Finance released an Information Note which stated that the ‘underlying deficit’ was equal to 9.4% of GDP.

These were based on a preliminary estimate of Ireland’s nominal GDP for 2011 of €156.4 billion.  Today’s figures from the CSO put the actual figure at €158.9 billion.  This has the following impact on the ratios:

• General government deficit: 12.9% of GDP
• ‘Underlying’ deficit: 9.2% of GDP
• General government debt: 106.5% of GDP

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