Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Renters are getting some too

Consider the folowing three pieces of information which we can use for some crude mathematics.

  • The Department of the Environment reports (Excel) that there are 188,152 private rented accommodations registered in Ireland.
  • Daft.ie estimates that in October the average rent in Ireland was €1,300
  • In the latest CPI release the CSO reports that rents fell by 6.1% in November.

A quick calculation shows that this reduction results in a saving of €15 million per month in the rental sector for consumers, coming in at €180 million for a full year.

How accurate is this? Let's see.

The total number of rented accomodations is based on registrations with the Private Residential Tenancies Board (PRTB). Not every tenancy is registered so this is the lower bound of the total.

The calculation from Daft.ie is based on asking rents on their website which may be different from the actual rent on the tenancy. This is an average of a small subet of rents, i.e. those advertisied on Daft. Also most tenancies will be in place for a period of time which means that actual rent may be different from the asking or agreed rent in tenancies starting now. Finally, this average doesn't take into account the size or number of residents in each tenancy.

The CSO figure stands up to scrutiny (apparentlty!).

Still, the point remains. The reduction in rent, and any further reductions, result in substantial savings for renters. And it's likely that landlords have been gaining too as interest rate reductions should more than offset the drop in rents.

Monday, December 22, 2008

How much interest are we saving?

Since October the ECB has cut their main refinancing rate from 4.25% to 2.5%. This rate is the driver of variable and tracker mortgage interest rates in Ireland. So how much are households benefitting as a result of the rate cuts?

The Central Bank reports in their Statistical Bulletin that in October there was about €123.5 billion of residential mortgages outstanding in Ireland. Of this about €90 billion was for principal dwellings and €33 billion was for buy-to-let residential properties.

Let's look at the mortgages for principal dwellings. Some of these properties are on fixed rate mortgages so the interest rate changes have no impact on the repayments. In 2007 Bank of Ireland reported the following breakdown for its mortgages

  • Fixed - 26%
  • Variable Tracker - 68%
  • Standard Variable - 6%

Bank of Ireland represented about 20% of the overall mortgage market so we can take them as being fairly representative. They did note, however, that fixed rates of between 2 and 5 years were becoming increasing popular. According to the Department of the Environment 38% of new loans issued in the second quarter of 2008 were on fixed interest rates.

We'll take it that 66% of mortgages are on tracker or standard variable rates. Although a conservative estimate it means that €60 billion of household mortgages now have lower interest payments. The savings?

Let'ss assume that the outstanding debt must be paid off over a 20 year term and that the average interest rate has dropped from 5.75% to 4%.

This means the monthly repayment on this debt has fallen by about €58 million per month. Over a full year this will give a saving of close to €700 million which will increase if interest rates fall again as expected. And this excludes savings in the buy-to-let sector which will bring the full amount closer to €1 billion. Now we're stimulating!

Automatic Stimulation?

The average price of a litre of petrol in Ireland has fallen below 1 euro for the first time since the the start of 2005.




In the middle of this year the price per litre peaked at an average of €1.34. In the space of a few weeks the price has dropped dramatically. This follows the pattern in commodity markets where the price of a barrel of oil peaked at $147 but has recently been below $40.

AA Ireland reports (via rte.ie) that "if you're putting 40 litres of petrol in your car, you are now spending €40.40 per tank instead of €53.60 - a significant saving." This is indeed a significant saving. But what is the saving for the economy as a whole?

In a full year Ireland consumes about 2 billion litres of petrol. Let's assume that the average price at the pump in 2008 was €1.20 (about right) and that the average price in 2009 will be €1.00. (as good as guess as any if the price changes follow a random walk).

With a consumption of 2 billion litres this means an aggregate saving of €400 million! That is €400 million extra that Irish consumers have to spend on other goods and services that would otherwise have (mostly) been spent on importing oil.

And there's more! The 2009 price includes an additional 8c per litre excise duty that only applied since the middle of October in 2008. So not only will the consumers have to spend less on petrol, the Exchequer will actually collect more. The increase in excise duty will bring in about an extra €160 million for the government. This gives a total gain of €560 million.

If the price continues to fall consumers will gain €100 million for every additional 5c decrease in the price per litre.

Sunday, December 21, 2008

The Broken Window of "Patriotic Duty"

In one of the best books on economics Henry Hazlitt gives us Economics in One Lesson. The book is available here. Hazlitt borrows from the 19th century French writer Federic Bastiat who wrote what is seen and what is not seen. Hazlitt uses this for the first chapter of part 2 in his book which is reproduced in full below. The first part is The Lesson.

The Broken Window

Let us begin with the simplest illustration possible: let us, emulating Bastiat, choose a broken pane of glass.

A young hoodlum, say, heaves a brick through the window of a baker’s shop. The shopkeeper runs out furious, but the boy is gone. A crowd gathers, and begins to stare with quiet satisfaction at the gaping hole in the window and the shattered glass over the bread and pies. After a while the crowd feels the need for philosophic reflection. And several of its members are almost certain to remind each other or the baker that, after all, the misfortune has its bright side. It will make business for some glazier. As they begin to think of this they elaborate upon it. How much does a new plate glass window cost? Two hundred and fifty dollars? That will be quite a sum.

After all, if windows were never broken, what would happen to the glass business? Then, of course, the thing is endless. The glazier will have $250 more to spend with other merchants, and these in turn will have $250 more to spend with still other merchants, and so ad infinitum. The smashed window will go on providing money and employment in ever-widening circles. The logical conclusion from all this would be, if the crowd drew it, that the little hoodlum who threw the brick, far from being a public menace, was a public benefactor.

Now let us take another look. The crowd is at least right in its first conclusion. This little act of vandalism will in the first instance mean more business for some glazier. The glazier will be no more unhappy to learn of the incident than an undertaker to learn of a death. But the shopkeeper will be out $250 that he was planning to spend for a new suit. Because he has had to replace a window, he will have to go without the suit (or some equivalent need or luxury). Instead of having a window and $250 he now has merely a window. Or, as he was planning to buy the suit that very afternoon, instead of having both a window and a suit he must be content with the window and no suit. If we think of him as a part of the community, the community has lost a new suit that might otherwise have come into being, and is just that much poorer.

The glazier’s gain of business, in short, is merely the tailor’s loss of business. No new “employment” has been added. The people in the crowd were thinking only of two parties to the transaction, the baker and the glazier. They had forgotten the potential third party involved, the tailor. They forgot him precisely because he will not now enter the scene. They will see the new window in the next day or two. They will never see the extra suit, precisely because it will never be made. They see only what is immediately visible to the eye.


So what has this got to do with us? Well, below I wrote how the flow of consumers North of the border may be an example of price discromination. In another intervention Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan has urged shoppers to do their “patriotic duty” and resist the urge to avail of bargains in the North. However if people can save €50 or €100 on their weekly shop this is extra money that they can spend in pubs, restaurants, cinemas and on taxis and other services in this country that can't be bought on a shopping trip to the North.

Brian Lenihan's patriotic duty involves reducing the incomes across a whole range of occupations. It just that these are unseen and not seen like traffic jams into Newry on a Saturday morning.

Multimarket price discrimination on an island

Could some of the price difference between goods in Northern Ireland and Ireland be down to price discrimination by retailers? Clearly, some of the difference is due to difference in VAT in the two states and a lot of it is accounted for by the recent depreciation (collapse?) in the value of sterling. However, the Irish government has written to British high street retailers in recent days expressing concern over the high prices of goods in their outlets in the Republic compared to the North. Is this what economists call third-degree price discrimination, i.e. charging different prices in different market segments?

The retailers are charging a higher price to those not willing to travel and a lower price to more price sensitive customers who are willing to travel to the North. Is the government moral outrage justified? Maybe, but then they should be also writing to the following:

  • Cinemas who charge higher prices to adults than students.
  • Retailers who charge higher prices to some shoppers than those who gather money off coupons and bring them to the shop.
  • Restaurants who charge higher prices to diners than to those who arrive before 7pm.

I'm not a student, I don't clip coupons and the babysitter doesn't arrive early enough for me to avail of early bird specials. It is appaling that I have to pay a higher price than others for these exact same goods. The government should be writing letters ensuring that I get to these lower prices. Or maybe the moral outrage about cheaper prices in the North is not justified at all and the government is engaged in is patriotic tokenism?

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