tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2826531655042170344.post8024505190903914117..comments2024-03-26T11:29:52.986+00:00Comments on Economic Incentives: Medium Term Debt Projections are all the sameSeamushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15679299530222667673noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2826531655042170344.post-42227342927135008792011-05-31T22:49:15.308+01:002011-05-31T22:49:15.308+01:00@ Anonymous (1)
That note, which I have reproduce...@ Anonymous (1)<br /><br />That note, which I have reproduced below, is useful but I'm not sure it offers the explanation I had hoped. Did the IMF just add €3 billion to the Social Welfare total because they wanted to add €3 billion in somewhere? Why are they not articulating the reasons for this deterioration?<br /><br />1/ In line with the initial program, the baseline projections incorporate the fiscal consolidation measures for 2011-14 that were approved by government in late 2010. Staff and the authorities project that additional measures will be required to meet the Stability and Growth Pact deficit target of 3 percent in 2015. For comparability of treatment with other European countries, this target is not reflected in the Fund’s medium-term projections as the underlying measures are not yet articulated.<br /><br />@ Dreaded Estate,<br /><br />To be honest I don't know where they are. I assume they are in 'Other Revenue' but that's only a guess.<br /><br />@ Anonymous (2) <br /><br />What is instructive about this recommendation? Are you suggesting that all the projections are the same because they all assume the targets will be met, particularly up to 2014, and hence they have to be the same? Now there's a thought.<br /><br />Anyway, here is recommendation 2a:<br /><br />(a) implement measures such that the general government deficit does not exceed 10,6 % of projected GDP in 2011, 8,6 % of GDP in 2012, 7,5 % of GDP in 2013, 5,1 % of GDP in 2014 and 2,9 % of GDP in 2015, where the projected annual deficit path does not incorporate the possible direct effect of potential bank support measures in the context of the government's financial sector strategy as set out in the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Polices and specified in the Memorandum of Understanding to be signed by the Commission and the Irish authorities. Ireland<br /> should stand ready to take additional consolidation measures to ensure reducing the deficit to below 3 % of GDP in 2015 in case downside risks to the deficit targets materialise. Further, this path is consistent with the preliminary view of the Commission (Eurostat) on the ESA95 accounting treatment of time of recording of interest payments on promissory notes payable to Anglo Irish Bank, such that a revision of that view would result in a revision of the deficit path;Seamus Coffeynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2826531655042170344.post-22677112908755907042011-05-31T22:10:48.940+01:002011-05-31T22:10:48.940+01:00This European Council recommendation of 7 December...This European Council recommendation of 7 December 2010 is instructive on this issue, especially recommendation 2a: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/sgp/pdf/30_edps/104-07_council/2010-12-07_ie_126-7_council_en.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2826531655042170344.post-71451589376873157962011-05-25T18:02:11.687+01:002011-05-25T18:02:11.687+01:00Seamus,
Sorry, I had not realised you had done a s...Seamus,<br />Sorry, I had not realised you had done a spreadsheet on an earlier blog showing movement from 2007 to 2015.Joseph Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07581632829548894401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2826531655042170344.post-12372716455777826002011-05-24T07:42:44.055+01:002011-05-24T07:42:44.055+01:00Where do transfers to the EU budget fit into this ...Where do transfers to the EU budget fit into this form of the national accounts?Dreaded_Estatehttp://www.irishpropertywatch.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2826531655042170344.post-38059550759531152802011-05-23T23:13:18.498+01:002011-05-23T23:13:18.498+01:00Seamus
If you put your end 2007 to 2014 data toge...Seamus<br /><br />If you put your end 2007 to 2014 data together from your may 6th blog, with a column analysing to total between deficit, bank and other, it would make for easier understanding of the dangers inherent in running deficits. It might also bring home the point more clearly that whereas the bank debt imposition was morally wrong, possibly legally wrong and definitely reprehensibly wrong, that the deficit is the bigger on going issue.<br /><br />PS. So there was a 'workable out' end 2014 cash figure after all!<br /><br />PPS: Finally managed to get an account name sorted.Joseph Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07581632829548894401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2826531655042170344.post-24572366802882299202011-05-22T17:08:10.129+01:002011-05-22T17:08:10.129+01:00On the difference in the 2015 figures, please see ...On the difference in the 2015 figures, please see the footnote to the IMF's table 3.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com